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122 Basic Demographic Methods
Programme: B.A. Environmental Studies
Credits: 12
Level: Year 1, Semester 2
General
objectives
This module,
which is a continuation of PS 112, will go more in-depth into measures that are
the outcome of censuses, their analysis and the meaning they have for
population sciences. The module will also treat these issues with ever growing
importance, namely migration, urbanization and unemployment and thus prepare
students with the necessary theoretical background to deal with some of the
most pressing social problems of our times.
Learning
outcomes
On the
completion of the module, students will have gained knowledge and insight in
the following issues:
- measures of
mortality, reproduction, nuptiality and fertility and related issues
- causes and
effects of migration
- causes and
effects of urbanization
- labor force,
participation and unemployment rates
- causes and
consequences of unemployment
- population
estimates, projections and forecasts
Approach to
learning and teaching
The module will
consist of 15 teaching weeks, one self study week and two examination weeks.
Each week will consist of:
- theory
lectures during which the theoretical background will be discussed;
- guest
lectures, presentations and group discussions and a practical group
exercise involving data collected during PHCB 2005;
- self study of
the theory available, collecting information, and preparing papers and do
presentations.
Assessment
●
Assignments 20%
●
Practical 20%
● End of semester examination 60%
Prerequisite: EVS 112 Introduction to Demography
Course
content
- measures of
population growth rate: exponential, geometric, linear and doubling time;
- methods of
evaluating census data: Single-year age distribution: age ratios,
Whipple's index, Myers' index, five-year age distribution, survival
ratios, sex ratios, UN age-sex accuracy index,
- measures of
mortality: crude and specific rates, standardized rates; infant, neonatal
and post-neonatal mortality; maternal mortality rate and ratio; concept of
life table; construction of life table from age specific death rate; model
life tables (United Nations Model Life Tables, Caole and Demeny Life
Tables); introduction to indirect methods of estimation – differencing
method; census survival rates method;
- measures of
fertility: crude and specific rates, rate of natural increase, intrinsic
rate of natural increases, period and cohort rates, standardized rates,
Coale’s fertility indices and modifications; child women ratios;
- measures of
reproduction: total fertility rate, gross reproduction rate, net
reproduction rate, and replacement index; indirect methods of estimation
(a) reverse survival method and its limitations, and (b) P/F ratio method
for adjusting period fertility rates; basic concepts in stable population
theory; measures of nuptiality; crude and specific marriage rates;
estimation of mean age from census data;
- estimation of
life time and intercensal migration from place to birth statistics;
estimation of internal migration from statistics on duration of residence,
place of last previous residence, and place of residence at a fixed prior
date; estimation of primary, secondary and return migrants;
- indirect
measures of net internal migration–growth rate method, vital statistics
method, life table survival ratio method and census survival ratio method;
estimation of international migration; problems of base population in
estimation of migration rates;
- components of
urban population growth; measures of degree, tempo and concentration of
urban population; rank size rate; use of standard distance measure in
studying population redistribution; index and redistribution of
population due to migration and natural increase; Gini Concentration ratio
and Lorenz curve;
- concepts of
work, labour force, potential labour force and manpower; concepts and
definitions-economically active population, dependants, livelihoods,
gainful work; classification of labour; source of data for labour force;
- crude activity
rate (or labour force participation rate); general activity rate; sex
specific activity rates; age specific activity rates; age–sex adjusted or
standardized activity rates; age dependency and economic dependency
ratios; replacement ratios and rates of working ages; average length of
working life; employment & unemployment rate; proportion of fully
employed; proportion of fully unemployed; use of balancing equation for
studying labour mobility;
- population
estimates, projections and forecasts; intercensal and post – censal
estimates of size, growth and age – sex structure of population; method of
population projection–mathematical and component methods; specific
projections–rural–urban labour force, school going population etc.
Reading list
- Barclay,
George W., 1958, Techniques of Population Analysis (New York: John
Wiley and Sons, Inc.),
- Bogue, Donald,
1969. Principles of Demography, John Wiley and Sons, New York
- Herbert, David
T and Colin J. Thomas, 1982. Urban Demography, G. John Wiley &
Sons, New York
- Lewis, G. J.,
1982. Human Migration, Gromm Helm, London
- McGee, T. G.,
1971: The Urbanisation Process in the Third World, G. Bell, London.
- Newell, Colin,
1988, Methods and Models in Demography (Chichester: John Wiley and
Sons).
- Oberoi, A. S.
1989. Problems of Urbanization and Growth of Large Cities on
Developing Countries: A Conceptual Framework for Policy Analysis, ILO,
Geneva, World Employment Programme Research, Working Paper No.169.
- Palmore, James
A. and Robert W. Gardner, 1983, Measuring Mortality, Fertility and
Natural Increase (Honolulu: East-West Centre).
- Shyrock, Henry
S, Jacob S. Siegel and Associates, 1973. The Methods and Materials of
Demography, Vol. I, US Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C.
- Weeks, John
R., 1989. Population–An Introduction to Concepts and Issues,
Wordsworth Publication, Co.
Additional readings
- United Nations, 1967, Manual III: Methods of Population Projection
by Sex and Age (New York: United Nations)
- United Nations, 1970, Manual VI: Methods of Measuring Internal
Migration (New York: United Nations).
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